At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK government instituted a shielding policy for vulnerable groups, assuming that shielding would protect them from severe illness and/or death from COVID-19. However, recent research found worse COVID-19 outcomes amongst vulnerable groups who were advised to shield compared to the rest of the population.
We have identified several opportunities to improve on previous studies on shielding and COVID-19 outcomes which:
- Were conducted in Scotland and West London; neither has examined data from England.
- Only examined COVID-19 outcomes within a 3-month period.
- Didn’t consider that COVID-19 infections varied greatly from one area to another and over time.
These are important contextual factors that would affect the risk of COVID-19 infection. Our study seeks to improve upon previous research by analysing data from England, extending the length of study period, and incorporating factors such as time and geographic location.
Our study could inform policy for the current ongoing COVID-19 pandemic or for future pandemics in terms of whether a shielding policy would be effective in preventing infections, severe outcomes, and/or death in vulnerable populations.